Why the Thunder lost to the Warriors– Billy Donovan and Russell Westbrook

People have been analyzing – wrongly – and commenting on – with little knowledge – the result of Game 7 between the Thunder and Warriors, which was won by Golden State. The Warriors overcame a 3-1 deficit to win the series.

Consequently, anyone with interest in the series has spared no lead or keystrokes in an attempt to provide THE reason(s) for the massive choke of the Thunder. Predictably the arguments include the unequalled brilliance of Golden State and/or Curry and/or Thompson in all their permutations (all of them not close); the complete collapse of the Thunder – wrong adjective; or the unprecedented gagging of the Thunder (a bulls eye but incomplete).

The two reasons for the Thunders faltering were Billy Donovan and Russell Westbrook. Their combined mistakes were ultimately compounded by the mistakes/bad decisions made by Kevin Durant and the blind luck of the Warriors. Donovan and Westbrook created the setting for the ‘perfect storm’ of failure whose instruments were Durant and the Warriors.

Donovan’s and Westbrook’s untimely errors (as if errors are ever timely) could have been overcome – as they were in Games 1, 3 and 4, but those victories were – particularly 3 and 4 – a function of good fortune and not good basketball.

Donovan first: Billy Donovan is a good coach and good guy and his Florida teams were terrific. He cut his teeth as a player and coach to be with a terrific mentor – Rick Pitino – who is as good as anyone there ever was in his overall mastery of the game, especially where it counts – game coaching and X and O’s. So Donovan had the luxury of that experience.

However, he forgot one thing- which is coaching in the NBA is different than coaching in college. That is not a new development as this is known by anyone who can take a breath. But few grasp the bottom line on the difference which is that college players are malleable while pros are not. Donovan could completely control the players and how they played molded to his game plan. And follow it they must if a player wanted to stay on the floor. There Donovan could keep it simple and repetitive so that execution had a chance to follow the game plan more times than not. His successes at Florida proved that out.

The pros are a different matter. One can bring up the difference in talent, ego, size, quickness and other things like floor spacing and all that kind of stuff. All of those are factors. But people do not look at the dark side of ego in the pros – lazy defense, donkey defense, no blocking out, no shot following, physical wear and tear, over valuing their own talent (they all think they can shoot when few really can); and other offensive sins. To control that ego when you are just the head coach making less money and hired to be fired is extremely difficult. Unless you have a good track record that gains the respect of the players and you have the right players – team players with high basketball IQ’s that understand the game and sign up to the overall game plan and team goals. In college players had no choice. It doesn’t matter to the pros. They worry about personal performance first that can maximize financial contractual rewards – especially in the first few years in the league – and team success and titles secondly.

So that is the backdrop for Donovan and this is no small beer and he certainly knew that these factors are in play. The allure of the talent of Kevin Durant and the harnessing of Westbrook was too much to turn down. Sugar plums of multiple titles dancing in one’s head for sure.

Unfortunately, Donovan gambled on accepting the recklessness and selfishness of Westbrook in exchange for the games where the statistics generated by Westbrook covered the faults and the play of Durant provided both an additional buttress against these faults and big time offensive and defensive numbers.

Because of Durant’s play and presence this recipe could be used over a number of games because few teams – even in the west – have the resources to stop Durant and a plus stat Westbrook. And so it was over the season. The playoffs are a different animal. Nothing enlightening about that. They just are.

Billy Donovan rolled the dice and he lost. An out of control and reckless Westbrook was so out of control and reckless that Durant’s brilliance could not cover the negative spread for all seven games. In a playoff series you run out of games and run out of time. Durant knows this and his play showed it. He did yeoman’s work on both ends of the court and when Westbrook was at his reckless worst, Durant would press and force. He could see what was happening and tried to take over by demanding the ball and then forcing everything. Instead of letting the game come to him, he forced. The result – turnovers and missed shots, both at inopportune times – like in the crunch and when they were behind. Durant’s turnovers were the subject of some commentary but they were misdirected at Durant or, laughingly, at the defensive prowess of Stephan Curry.

While the Westbrook kamikaze was going on, Donovan seemingly was unable to control Westbrook or unwilling to. As a result, Westbrook’s constant driving into traffic in hopes of drawing fouls while tossing up anything to get a shooting foul and praying for a good bounce became so chaotic and useless that Westbrook started diving and that really ended it for him. He would get no calls. And he was so focused on trying to draw fouls that he would drift sideways on 10 foot shoots and try to feather in a shot over arms instead of stopping at 12 feet and going straight up to make the shot. He did not even try to use the backboard to increase his chances of the ball going in as he was flying down the lane. Essentially luck – and that is what it is – was not on Westbrook’s side in games 2, 5, 6, 7. The negative outweighed the ‘positive’ in the other three games.

Now Donovan had no Plan B. Nothing to counter Westbrook’s egregious play. He had Plan D, being Kevin Durant, but no even this great player could overcome Westbrook’s chaos. Furthermore, Donovan did not have a couple of go to plays to counter any of the Warriors’ lucky shooting blitzes that took the starch out of his team. Instead, there were forces and turnovers and not baskets. Donovan even erred on his player rotation and who should play with whom at certain times in the game in order to capitalize on complementing Durant and Westbrook and taking some heat off them. Using more of Obaka, Kantner, Roberson, and Waiters to play smaller to spread the floor and add more 3 point shooting possibilities was a terrible oversight on Donovan’s part. He could have used these player combos to force Westbrook to pass and move in concert with the others. That is how the Spurs play, that is what the Warriors do when Bogut is on the bench.

It seems that Donovan relied on almost wining Games 5 and 6 – which were winnable but for Westbrook’s kamikaze routine – and thought that the banzai boy’s mistakes would not cost them. But cost them it did. Surely Donovan could see after Game 5 that he needed to do something to end the madness and not risk having to go on the road for Game 7. But he did not and he almost got away with it.

Playoff games can be unpredictable and crazy and that is what happened in Game 7. The third quarter of Game 7 was a joke. The ultimate banzai by Westbrook and the unforgiving luck of the Warriors shooting. And the Warriors shooting streak was pure luck. Anyone who says otherwise or thinks otherwise is willfully ignorant, lying or incredibly dishonest. The ‘perfect storm’ hit the Thunder. Ironic term given the team’s name.

Getting to the NBA Finals is demanding and does not come easy or frequently unless you have an exceptional team – e.g. Spurs – or a couple or three tremendous players who can overcome any team deficiencies by the sheer talent of their games – e.g.  Cavs.

The only way any team with Russell Westbrook will be successful is if the team and its coach can control Westbrook by the power of their will or at least greatly reduce his chaos or Westbrook himself must look in to the mirror and honestly recognize the negative impact of his style of his play and correct it. Sadly, based in the individual, the former is the only way that could happen.

And that is why the Golden State Warriors beat the Oklahoma City Thunder to advance to the NBA Finals.

Prime Sports Report Commentary – June 3, 2016