THE MOST FEARED WORD IN SPORTS

“I’d rather be lucky than good” ~ Lefty Gomez

There is a 4 letter word that includes the letters “u”, “c”, “k”, whose use is discouraged amongst athletes and seldom uttered them. And invariably not by their coaches, supporters, or announcers. Because it cannot be controlled or summoned on demand and it comes in various forms to different people, it is the most feared word in sports.

The Los Angeles Dodgers, the New York Mets and the defending World Series Champions Kansas City Royals have been bit hard by the injury bug over this season. It has ravaged their respective teams and not allowed them to become the contenders that their respective rosters showed them to be. A case of uber Bad Luck for these teams. But that’s the way sports is and for these teams the baseball gods are not treating them with any kindness.  As Paden would say – ‘Just bad luck”.

And that is indisputably true. What about it’s opposite: Good Luck or just plain Luck? Surely some teams must be experiencing some good luck? The answer is yes, some teams have been experiencing some enormous good luck.

Like the Toronto Blue Jays.

But before examining the Blue Jays Luck – one must ask the following questions – Would any GM trade Jake Arrieta; Chris Sale, Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Zach Greinke;  Chris Archer, Adam Wainright, Jose Fernandez straight up for any one of J.A. Happ; Marco Estrada; or Aaron Sanchez? What has happened to Dallas Keuchel? And does his performance this year mean he is a bum compared to the aforementioned Happ, Estrada, or Sanchez?

The reason the Blue Jays are where they are – both this year and last year:

Blind unadulterated LUCK.

Consider:

Last year: record 93-69

• Russell Martin – best season ever – home runs and ribbies

• Chris Collabello – best season ever

• Marco Estrada – best season ever – 15 games won – best prior 7

• David Price goes 9-1 down the stretch post acquisition from the Tigers

• Drew Hutchison 13-5 – sure a break-out year – a little regression in 2016

• Josh Donaldson – best ever by far

2016: 62-47 – year to date

• JA Happ – 15-2 – previous season high 11

• Marco Estrada – ERA – best ever

• Michael Saunders – 19 bombs at the break – his highest for a season was 19

• Aaron Sanchez – 11-1 – more wins than the total of his, albeit, short career

No HONEST broker could say that any of these outcomes was expected or anticipated. It is one thing to maintain average performance numbers; it is totally another to exceed those averages exponentially. These are not – what is stupidly named and massively threadbare now – ‘break-out years’ because that meaning of this dopey term is meant for players who have been identified as having enormous potential that will ultimately be fulfilled. It is not meant to describe a ‘one-off’ – an anomaly.

In 2015 there is no way in hell that the numbers noted above were factored in by Jay’s brass. Or the fans. Or the sycophant media.  However, they all talk like the results are nothing strange or abnormal, that there is no anomaly there. That is despicably dishonest.  The lap poodle Toronto media is legendary for their sucking up to any athlete – expect Leaf hockey players – so their conduct is expected as they have no honour or integrity.

What is worse is the reaction by the players who have put up those anomaly numbers – they don’t admit at all that things are going their way or that they are lucky. There is never a mention of that.  How then, would the players noted above for their 2015 numbers, speak about their numbers in 2016, which are what their lifetime averages are? Not a word.

Yet baseball history – and other sports are rife with stories about how to keep a streak going. What to wear, what to eat, a particular routine, an object to carry and many other superstitions – like Jobu or Nuke wearing the garter belt– to keep the good fortune alive and respect the streak. Nothing about ability or expectation, just superstition. The habits of the players support what you are reading herein.

The 2016 numbers are just as striking – particularly Happ, Sanchez and Saunders. If anyone attempts to argue that this is anything other than LUCK they are bold face liars. Happ has not developed additional pitches – he is the same he always has been. Sanchez’s numbers are a joke and not because he is next Roger Clemens.  And Saunders, while he may be a bit healthier, has the baseball gods living at his house.

For 2015 the LUCK factor for the Jays as a consequence of the numbers is at LEAST 10 games when viewed through the prism of career averages. Take 10 wins away and their record is 83-79 – basically a .500 club.

In 2016 – same thing. There are at least 10 games – and then some, as a result of Happ and Sanchez going 26 – 3 and Saunders hitting 19 bombs by the break.  There is at least a LUCK factor of 10 games. Take 10 games away and the Jays are 52-57 – a below .500 team.

That is what this team is – a .500 team at best – this year and last year.

In 1985 Dennis Lamp went 11-0 for the Jays – 11 and freaking 0. The 11 wins are the most he ever won in one season. He was a .500 pitcher as his career stats indicate.  In 1985 this guy was revered in Toronto as the second coming of Bob Gibson. What a joke. The guy was an average pitcher and that season his results were an anomaly. It was a huge contributor to the Jays winning the American League pennant.  No one would ever equate Lamp with Gibson.

Likewise in 2016 no one would be equate Happ, Sanchez or Estrada with Clayton Kershaw or Jake Arrieta, Stephen Strasburg,  Madison Bumgarner, or Chris Sale, but that is what the Jay’s fans and sycophantic  Toronto media are portraying – especially those dishonourable announces (should be cheerleaders) – Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler.

It is great that players are able to do better and increase their value and put themselves in a position to increase their salaries. It is shameful that there is a total lack of honesty or humility on their part and the cheerleader’s of this team not to tell it like it is. In all of those players, there is nothing that they have done or shown that would predict these outcomes. All are the same players they have always been and while they and their teams and fans hope they put up big stats and that they may possess the physical attributes to achieve these stats – please notice this is not the same as skill attributes – their performance records indicate what stats could be expected by them annually. To exceed them exponentially is a great surprise for certain, but an anomaly nevertheless.

Athletes in many sports talk about “being in the zone” – golfers and basketball players and baseball players especially. They all know this zone is finite and transitory as it comes and goes, if it comes at all. In baseball, there are times when every pitch arrives in slow motion the size of a beach ball and other times it comes in with the speed and size of a bullet. Players always hope those times are really transitory.

In this instance – the Toronto Blue Jays – since the players and the others have no honour and will not be honest, PSR will act as the truth tellers. And the truth is that the Blue Jays performance in 2015 and so far in 2016 is attributable to nothing but LUCK.

Remember that when watching them play.

PSR Commentary – August 7, 2016