Let’s start with the obvious – and it is a huge obvious. And an obvious obvious:
NONE OF THE TEAMS CAN SHOOT. NOT ONE OF THEM.
That is so obvious it sticks out like spinach between your teeth at a job interview. There are some players out there who are pretty good shooters – Grayson Allen, Luke Kennard, Markus Howard, Bryce Alford – but not that many. And you can forget about Frank Mason – whatever he is shooting this year is an anomaly. Good shooters are so consistent that their bad shooting nights are as rare as a blue moon.
Also, dismiss those players and teams in conferences where the overall talent and competition is not to the level of the power conferences. The players are good players but please lay off the label of great shooters, because they are far from it.
If you must ask the reason for those observations, then you will never know because you do not know the game and, further, you have no context. For individuals who have played an elite level of men’s basketball it is easy to see who the real shooters are.
That is the backdrop because the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket and if you cannot shoot you do not win. Scorers are a different matter. Being a decent shooter and being able to put the ball on the deck to get to the hole makes for the ideal offensive player. And there are plenty of individuals who can do that but few teams who have more than a couple of players who meet that standard. And there are fewer still who are really good shooters and really good scorers. Allen and Kennard are two of the few and lucky for Duke that they have them.
Unfortunately, tournament teams are full of players who not only think they can shoot but also think they are scorers. This is one of the key negatives for teams – players who think they are studs when they are closer to duds. If they are guards, your team is doomed – see Kentucky Wildcats and Isiah Briscoe.
For 2017 the most important factors that will determine success are as follows:
Matchups – how teams matchup – not in record but in style of play and types of players will determine the outcome. Much like boxers. Fighters make fights, How teams matchup is critical
Having players that can handle any offense or defensive set or game situation
Good game coaches – this is the second most important element behind being able to shoot and score. If a team has a coach that changes things up defensively and shows some bloody imagination on offense, that team has the ability to beat anyone. However, if the team plays games where they are Jekyll and Hyde depending on the half and give away big leads – then, not only is the team not very good, the coach must be considered an idiot. Not to have a lock down offense set to get layups and/or fouls to close teams out and not to be able to defend better are sacrilegious to say the least. And if you think this is nonsense – think John Stockton and Karl Malone. And it you don’t get it by that, then you are a hoops dunce and should take a few hundred courses, play at an elite level, or consider cricket
One dimensional – one dimensional teams and teams with a one dimensional key player will be toast
In the tournament, as in most games, the key stats are foul shooting attempts and percentage and turnovers. This will tell you if teams can close out games
Teams that play not to lose as opposed play to win – this is a killer for almost every single coach. Their brain goes dead in the last 10 minutes.
Smart players – if your team has dumb players who are not smart shooters, who think they can shoot when they cannot, think they are the key, attempt things that cannot possibly be successful doing, then that team is guaranteed for failure
Battle tested – close games, games against good teams, games where they are challenged all the time by lesser teams – those teams that overcome those obstacles will have the greatest chance for success
And on the more technical aspects of the game which only experts – like us – can see, if the team does the following:
Plays donkey D
Players do not follow their shots
Watch the ball in flight without putting a body on a man to box out
Cannot even roll the correct way on the pick and roll
Constantly dribbles into trouble when going to the hoop
Players let their man beat them baseline
Players do not use the backboard on close in shots
Attempt to block a shot with the incorrect hand
Players do not give passing angles
Players round off layups and do not have their bodies and rim block defenders,
on a consistent basis – they are doomed because they are dumb and they are not well coached – a killer combo.
Some quick notes for this years’ tournament:
There really is no Cinderella – no team is really an unknown that will surprise to the Final 8 – and advancement of lower seeds is a function of the lack of quality teams. Teams – on an overall basis – are just not that good this year and they can be had anytime by any team in the field.
The most dangerous teams are – in no particular order – SMU; Cincinnati; St. Mary’s; Florida St; Iowa St
Kentucky has slowed down offensively – the last few games they have walked the ball up the floor. No one has written about it because they don’t know the game. Calipari is doing this to minimize turnovers and poor shot selection. He is relying on Monk and Fox to break down the defense in a half court set. They will not win because of this, lack of defense and they absolutely cannot shoot
As long as Kentucky thinks they need G Isiah Briscoe – they are doomed as well. Briscoe is a stiff but he thinks he is great and he can shoot. Bad combo
Kansas will not win. Guards are massively over rated. So is Josh Jackson. And they cannot shoot or rebound or play D
If Jayson Tatum can contribute in every game for Duke – they have to be a favorite to win because that means they have 3 solid scorers – and 2 of the best shooters in the country. And Luke Kennard may be the smartest player in the land.
One dimensional teams will not win – Virginia. Cannot score and have a guard as brutal as Briscoe – London Parentes – cannot shoot and thinks he can.
Wild card teams that can beat anyone on any day – Oklahoma State because they can score and West Virginia because of the turnovers they create. If West Virginia could shoot and/or score they would win this going away
Teams with over rated point guards are toast – other than Virginia and Kentucky noted above, there is Baylor with Lecomte – cannot handle pressure; and UNC – Joel Berry cannot shoot or score and he thinks he can. They will not win.
If UCLA does not score 90 or more, they will lose – and Lonzo Ball is not a shooter (and the most overrated player to come down the pike since Vince Carter) – not with that ugly jumper which he will not be able to get off in the NBA unless he is stark wide open
Last week was last week. Now the real test begins. Momentum starts now, not last week. So, Michigan is starting fresh for those who think they have great mo.
There are not many teams that have the flexibility in personnel to play against different schemes, styles and tempo. If there is a team – and there is one – that can do this without sacrificing anything with the change in personnel, they are the team to beat.
Villanova can repeat but they must have 5 guys pounding the defensive boards with wild abandon. That’s first. Secondly, they have 3 scorers – Jenkins, Brunson, and Hart. But not one of them is consistent enough to count on for every game and not one of them is a good shooter. They are way too streaky to be considered good shooters. They could just as soon throw up an ‘0-fer’ as make 9 out of 10. But only a couple other teams have these many scorers – Duke, Gonzaga are two of them.
Purdue has a lot of tools but Matt Painter is not using them as effectively as he could. They have guys who are reasonable shooters and they have a big guy who can score – Haas – and a scorer in Swanigan, but Painter does not use a set that allow these two guys to work off each other and really cause teams problems. If Painter were a better X and O guy, this team would be a top favorite to win it all
Both Xavier and Creighton lost their key player – cannot have that in the tournament and they will be lucky to win one game let alone more
Computer simulations and a mountain of stats that the millennials use for projections are so completely useless it is beyond the pale. They think volume gives them some expert knowledge. They cannot factor in the human element, good or bad game coaching, and injury. Since they have NEVER PLAYED THE GAME, it’s the best they have. Ignorant saps.
The teams with the best overall chance to win – baring injury to a key player – are Gonzaga and Duke. They both have flexible lineups, multiple guys who can score; and good game coaches.
